A companion to The Maintenance Cost of Liberty

Choices and Everyday Consequences

A five-state addition to the Government Design Review

The original review began with a question about maintenance: what does a governing arrangement ask ordinary people to understand, watch and repair?

But knowing who holds the authority only gets us so far. I also want to know how a decision reaches the household. How does the bill arrive? What was a rule supposed to make possible? If the promised benefit hasn't appeared, which office can explain what happened—and which one can change it?

That is what this addition begins to follow. Suppose a parent needs somewhere nearby to live, a new rental development promises affordable homes, or your town says its housing plan is complete. What would those choices mean for you—and what would you need to know before relying on them? California, Florida, Texas, New York and New Jersey give us five places to begin.

In the 2024 figures, California's residential electricity price per kilowatt-hour is much higher than Texas's, while its average monthly bill is slightly lower because average use is much lower. That does not make the higher price reasonable. Lower use could have produced a lower bill. What costs are residents being asked to carry, who authorized them, and could residents have kept more of that saving? The rate and the bill reveal different parts of the question; neither establishes that the bargain was justified.

The same care belongs elsewhere. A policy's intended benefit, an adopted rule and a completed home are different things. People moving into or out of a state give us another question to investigate, not an explanation conveniently attached to a moving van.

I am more interested in making those questions easier to follow than in declaring a winner. What did this choice buy? What did it cost? What would a proposed repair produce—and what else would it disturb?

For now, this is a five-state pilot. The opening stories and Sections A–D remain in place. Section E adds observations, a decision route and the things we still don't know.

Read a state's new Section E

Choose a state below. Its original story and Sections A–D come first; Section E follows them.

Scope and dates. Five selected states, not a representative sample or a ranking. Most observations are from 2024; migration uses Census Vintage 2025. These are deliberately dated comparisons, not claims to be the newest available figures. A statewide average does not establish the effect of the policy beside it. The school-spending denominator remains unresolved and those amounts are excluded from the compact comparison.

Same measures, different arrangements

Wide tables scroll sideways on a small screen. Detailed definitions and source locations are available below.

Housing and electricity

Start with your own situation: do you rent, own with a mortgage, or own without one? The housing figures show how many households in each group spend at least 30% of their income on housing. If a figure is 55%, think roughly 55 out of 100 households in that group—not a claim that your own home costs 55% of your income. The electricity figures then separate the price of a unit, the amount used and the resulting average bill.

State	Renters ≥30%	Mortgaged owners ≥30%	Unmortgaged owners ≥30%	Power ¢/kWh	kWh/month	Bill/month
California	55.8% ±0.6pp	39.4% ±0.4pp	18.0% ±0.4pp	31.97	503	$160.86
Florida	62.1% ±0.8pp	38.3% ±0.6pp	19.7% ±0.5pp	14.14	1,104	$156.09
Texas	52.7% ±0.7pp	30.8% ±0.5pp	15.0% ±0.4pp	14.94	1,096	$163.72
New York	51.5% ±0.7pp	33.6% ±0.6pp	20.2% ±0.5pp	24.43	571	$139.53
New Jersey	52.2% ±1.2pp	32.0% ±0.8pp	21.6% ±0.9pp	19.34	662	$128.13

Housing: ACS 2024 one-year survey; households whose housing-cost share could be calculated. The ± figures describe survey uncertainty in percentage points. Electricity: EIA 2024 residential customer averages. A lower average bill does not establish that a higher unit price is justified. Housing costs already include some taxes and utilities; adding all these figures together would count some costs twice.

Sources: ACS-R · ACS-O · ACS-MOE · EIA24

How are public services paid for?

Suppose you want to know whether public spending is being paid for now or leaving a bill for later. Comparing tax collections with spending will not answer that: taxes are only one funding source, and borrowing is different from income.

State and local taxes: property, sales, income and other taxes. These collections include payments from businesses and nonresidents, not just households living in the state.
Federal funding: grants and other transfers can help fund state and local services. They are funded nationally; their absence from the state/local tax column does not make them costless.
Charges and other revenue: service fees and other receipts also contribute. Their treatment depends on which services and government activities are included.
Borrowing and existing reserves: debt can finance spending that must be repaid later; reserves can finance spending from money accumulated earlier. Neither should be mistaken for recurring tax income.

What would establish a shortfall? A complete account of revenue, spending and financing for the same period and activities. The two partial measures retained below do not calculate a deficit or show that each resident receives more than they pay.

Definitions: Census government-finance glossary.

Optional scale comparison: taxes collected and selected spending

Not an income-versus-outgo account. The tax figures exclude federal funding and other non-tax revenue. The spending figures cover direct general spending, not every government activity. Do not subtract these columns to estimate a deficit or a benefit received by a resident.

Tax collections only

Total state/local taxes divided by population. This is not the amount charged to an average household.

State	Taxes collected per resident · FY2024
California	$10,177
Florida	$5,353
Texas	$5,670
New York	$12,274
New Jersey	$9,050

Direct general spending

Selected state/local spending divided by population. This does not mean that amount is spent directly on, or received by, each person. It is a separate measure of scale.

State	Direct general spending per resident · FY2024
California	$18,861
Florida	$10,600
Texas	$11,490
New York	$19,850
New Jersey	$14,161

FY2024 nominal dollars; combined state/local governments. Population divisor: July 1, 2024, Census Vintage 2025. Definitions, exclusions and public-use data limitations are in the evidence below.

Sources: FIN24 · FIN-DEF · POP25.

One public service: what do school scores tell us?

A parent asking what education spending buys needs to know what students can do. A NAEP score of 250 is not 50% correct or a failing mark out of 500. It is a position on an assessment scale. Compare the same subject and grade, rather than treating points as a percentage or comparing reading directly with math.

The percentages below are easier to interpret: below NAEP Basic identifies students who did not reach NAEP's Basic threshold; at or above NAEP Proficient identifies those who reached its higher standard. Students between those thresholds are in neither displayed column, so the two percentages do not add to 100. NAEP Proficient is not the same as a state's definition of meeting grade-level expectations.

2024 public-school students · grade 4
State	Reading: below Basic	Reading: at/above Proficient	Math: below Basic	Math: at/above Proficient
California	44%	29%	30%	35%
Florida	38%	33%	18%	45%
Texas	43%	28%	21%	43%
New York	41%	31%	28%	37%
New Jersey	34%	38%	23%	44%

The same achievement measures for eighth grade

2024 public-school students · grade 8
State	Reading: below Basic	Reading: at/above Proficient	Math: below Basic	Math: at/above Proficient
California	37%	28%	46%	25%
Florida	37%	25%	45%	21%
Texas	39%	25%	44%	24%
New York	35%	31%	42%	26%
New Jersey	27%	38%	35%	37%

Average scale scores for grades 4 and 8

These retain the original 0–500 scale-score comparison. The scale is not a percentage-correct or pass/fail grading system. Small-looking differences cannot be judged simply by dividing by 500, and no new statistical-significance tests are claimed here.

State	Math scores · grades 4 / 8	Reading scores · grades 4 / 8
California	233 / 269	212 / 254
Florida	243 / 267	218 / 253
Texas	241 / 269	212 / 252
New York	234 / 271	215 / 257
New Jersey	240 / 282	222 / 266

Are the results basically the same despite different spending? Some scores are close; others differ appreciably. In these five states, fourth-grade reading below Basic ranges from 34% in New Jersey to 44% in California; eighth-grade reading at or above Proficient ranges from 25% in Florida and Texas to 38% in New Jersey. Those are not identical outcomes.

The variation raises a reasonable question about value for money, but this snapshot does not establish what an extra dollar buys. Spending is not adjusted here for local prices, salaries or student needs; it is a one-year system average, while learning reflects many years and circumstances. The published per-pupil figures remain clearly provisional in each state's detail because their source enrollment denominator is unresolved (C17). This is not a completed spending-effectiveness study.

All achievement percentages are the published rounded values from the official 2024 state reports. No pairwise significance tests have been added. How NAEP reports results.

State reports: California · math · Florida · math · Texas · math · New York · math · New Jersey. math Unresolved school-spending denominator (C17)

Are more people moving in or moving out?

Imagine 120 people move in from other states and 100 move out: the net domestic gain is 20. The table reports that balance, not all the people who moved. The rate per 1,000 residents makes differently sized states easier to compare. It does not tell you whether someone moved for work, family, housing costs or a government policy.

State	2020–2021	2021–2022	2022–2023	2023–2024	2024–2025
California	-470,759 / -11.97	-344,130 / -8.79	-343,891 / -8.78	-241,611 / -6.15	-229,077 / -5.82
Florida	+253,220 / +11.66	+310,892 / +14.05	+183,646 / +8.10	+58,411 / +2.53	+22,517 / +0.96
Texas	+199,360 / +6.78	+218,840 / +7.33	+188,667 / +6.20	+86,067 / +2.77	+67,299 / +2.14
New York	-326,190 / -16.33	-284,910 / -14.41	-177,852 / -9.01	-119,231 / -5.99	-137,586 / -6.88
New Jersey	-34,314 / -3.70	-62,174 / -6.70	-41,714 / -4.46	-35,501 / -3.76	-37,428 / -3.93

Each cell shows the net number of people, followed by the rate per 1,000 residents. The intervals run from July to June. All estimates come from the same Census Vintage 2025 release. “Domestic” means moves within the United States; international arrivals, births and deaths are separate, so a domestic loss does not by itself mean the total population fell.

Sources: POP25

Could your retirement income support a life here?

What would it take to cover the essentials here? These estimates are for retired households aged 65 and older, in good health. They include housing, food prepared at home, transportation, health care and everyday necessities such as clothing and telephone service. They do not include holidays, entertainment, gifts or savings. Renters are modelled in a one-bedroom apartment. This is an estimated annual essentials budget for a stated household, not the average income of residents or a comfortable-retirement target.

Which costs vary by state—and what does the 75% comparison mean?

The New Jersey single renter’s total is $38,736 a year; the couple’s total is $51,648. The single total is about 75% of the couple total. This does not mean 75% goes to rent: the model includes the same $20,232 annual one-bedroom rent for each household.

For a couple, monthly rent is $1,686 in New Jersey and $1,555 in Florida; health costs are $960 and $788; transportation is $413 and $466. The food allowance is $601 in both states. Some categories vary locally, others use common assumptions. A higher total needs to be traced to its components before attributing it to state policy.

Which of these states taxes your retirement income?

Social Security: none of these five states taxes it. Federal income tax can still apply. The table concerns state personal income tax for residents; it does not describe property tax, sales tax or the full tax bill.

Income-source guide · checked October 17, 2026 · apply the relevant tax-year rules
State	Private pension / traditional IRA or 401(k) withdrawals	Qualified Roth IRA withdrawals	Ordinary taxable interest, dividends and realised investment gains
California	Taxable portion generally taxed	Not taxed	Generally taxed
Florida	No personal income tax	No personal income tax	No personal income tax
Texas	No personal income tax	No personal income tax	No personal income tax
New York	Taxable, with an exclusion for qualifying income	Not taxed	Generally taxed
New Jersey	Taxable, with exclusions for qualifying income	Not taxed	Generally taxed; other retirement exclusion can matter

New York: qualifying pension and annuity income can receive an exclusion of up to $20,000 per eligible recipient aged 59½ or older; a spouse’s unused allowance cannot simply be transferred. Qualifying New York state/local and federal public pensions have a separate exemption. Other states’ public pensions are not automatically covered by that exemption.

New Jersey: qualifying taxpayers aged 62 or older, or disabled, can exclude eligible retirement income. At total income of $100,000 or less, the maximum is $100,000 for a joint return or $75,000 for a single filer. Partial exclusions apply above $100,000 through $150,000; above $150,000 the pension exclusion is unavailable. Previously taxed IRA contributions and other retirement exclusions need separate treatment.

Read the income type carefully. A qualified Roth withdrawal is different from a Roth conversion. Selling an investment does not make the entire sale proceeds taxable income: the gain and the return of your original investment are different. Tax-exempt bonds and some public or military pensions have special rules. New York City and Yonkers can add local income-tax considerations. “Generally taxed” means income can enter the calculation, not that everyone pays tax on every dollar received.

Official guidance: California pensions and IRAs · California investments · Florida · Texas · New York retirement income · New York Roth treatment · New Jersey exclusions · New Jersey Roth treatment · New Jersey investments. This guide does not calculate gross income needed after taxes.

Does this really compare hurricane insurance—and would a newcomer pay the same?

Insurance is included in reported homeowner costs, but this is not a quote for complete storm coverage. The Elder Index uses median costs reported by existing owners aged 65 and older. It does not separately verify current homeowners, wind and flood premiums, policy availability, exclusions or deductibles for a particular property. Florida and coastal Texas both require a closer look; a state average cannot price the address you are considering.

Florida’s consumer insurance guidance explains that standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage, and hurricane deductibles can be separate. Texas’s guide likewise explains flood exclusions and separate coastal windstorm coverage arrangements. Do not assume the budget includes all the coverage you would want or the cash you would need after a storm.

A newcomer is buying under today’s conditions. The purchase price and mortgage can differ from those of a long-standing owner, a new insurance policy needs a new quote, and local assessment rules and exemptions can change the property-tax bill. Florida’s property appraisers warn that a change in ownership can trigger reassessment at just value the following January; the seller’s bill is not the buyer’s reliable budget. Existing-owner costs describe one situation; relocation needs a budget for the actual home.

Before relying on the owner estimate, obtain an address-specific tax estimate and quotes identifying homeowners, wind and flood coverage, excluded risks and deductibles. Replace the corresponding costs in the benchmark rather than adding the whole estimate twice.

Elder Index expense definitions · Florida coverage guide · Florida hurricane deductible · Texas home insurance guide · Florida property-appraiser reassessment explanation.

Estimated annual essentials budget · couple · age 65+ · good health · 2025 dollars
State	Renting	With mortgage	Owning outright
Texas	$44,808	$51,120	$38,280
Florida	$46,992	$49,248	$36,408
New Jersey	$51,648	$62,100	$46,392
California	$53,784	$60,384	$38,676
New York	$55,032	$63,060	$44,760

What if you are living on one income?

Estimated annual essentials budget · single · age 65+ · good health · 2025 dollars
State	Renting	With mortgage	Owning outright
Texas	$32,100	$38,412	$25,572
Florida	$35,040	$37,296	$24,456
New Jersey	$38,736	$49,188	$33,480
California	$41,532	$48,132	$26,424
New York	$41,676	$49,704	$31,404

One person does not need half a couple’s budget. In New Jersey, the basic renter budget is $38,736 for one person, about 75% of the couple’s $51,648. Sharing a home spreads costs. A surviving partner therefore needs a separate income-and-expenses calculation.

What can you learn from these numbers?

Your housing situation changes the order. For a renting couple, Texas has the lowest estimate among these five states. For a couple owning outright, Florida has the lowest, and New Jersey moves above New York. California’s outright-owner budget is only $396 a year above Texas’s, while its renter budget is $8,976 higher. A single “best retirement state” would conceal that difference.

A paid-off house still sends bills. The New Jersey estimate includes $1,248 a month in homeowner costs even without a mortgage; Florida’s is $673. These figures include property taxes, insurance, fuel, utilities and relevant fees. They describe existing older owners, not what a newcomer would necessarily pay.

Owning outright lowers the modelled annual cash requirement; it does not prove that buying or paying off a home is the best financial choice. These are different household groups, not the same house with its mortgage removed. The table does not charge an upfront purchase price or measure what savings tied up in the house could otherwise provide.

Ask what would remain. If a couple had $50,000 available for living costs after income taxes, the renter benchmark would leave $5,192 in Texas or $3,008 in Florida. It would fall short by $1,648 in New Jersey, $3,784 in California and $5,032 in New York. This is subtraction from the basic budgets, not a forecast or an allowance for savings and leisure.

What is included—and what still needs a separate calculation?

The budgets include housing, food, transport, health care and other essentials. Health costs already include Medicare Part B, supplemental or Medicare Advantage coverage assumptions, prescription coverage and out-of-pocket spending. Do not add those costs again. The budget does not allow for recreation, gifts or savings, and this version does not price a personal long-term-care plan, moving costs or a new property’s insurance quote.

This is not a gross-income requirement after calculating income taxes. The next step depends on the income source, filing status, ages and applicable tax year. Someone retiring before Medicare age needs a different health-coverage budget. County and property differences can matter more than the state estimate.

Why the source of your retirement income matters

Florida and Texas do not impose a personal income tax. California excludes Social Security but generally taxes taxable private pension and retirement-account income. New York excludes Social Security and qualifying New York public and federal pensions, with a separate exclusion of up to $20,000 of qualifying pension and annuity income for each eligible recipient aged 59½ or older. New Jersey excludes Social Security and offers qualifying retirement-income exclusions subject to age, income and filing-status rules.

A couple with $40,000 of Social Security and $20,000 of qualifying retirement withdrawals therefore presents a different state-tax question from a couple receiving $60,000 entirely from taxable withdrawals. The same total cash is not necessarily the same taxable income. These rules do not calculate the household’s tax bill; federal taxes, local rules and the exact income categories still need to be applied.

Official tax guidance: California Social Security · California pension guidance (2025 edition; check current-year changes) · Florida · Texas · New York · New Jersey retirement exclusions · New Jersey retirement income.

Source: Elder Index (2025), Gerontology Institute, UMass Boston, retrieved October 17, 2026; expense definitions and methodology questions. Figures transcribed from the published single/couple, good-health results for these five states. This is an affordability comparison for stated circumstances, not a ranking of government quality.

How could these choices show up in your life?

These are illustrative situations, not reports of actual households or confirmation that a particular property or applicant qualifies. Each begins with something a person might want to do, then follows the relevant choice.

California

Could a relative live in a second home on your lot?

Suppose an adult child or an ageing parent needs a place nearby. You have a single-family lot and want to know whether another home could be built there.

SB 9 creates a route for qualifying two-unit developments and lot splits. It does not establish that your parcel qualifies or that construction will be affordable.

What could you ask—and what would help answer it?

The question: Does this parcel qualify, what would prevent approval, and what would it cost to turn permission into an occupied home?

Where to start: Ask the city or county planning office about the parcel requirements, the application and any written decision or conditions. Approved plans and completion or occupancy records answer different questions.

Read this state’s Section E and policy evidence

Florida

Will an advertised affordable development offer a home you can rent?

Suppose a development near your job is described as bringing affordable rentals. You want to know what that promise means for someone looking for a home.

Live Local gives qualifying rental projects a route onto certain land otherwise zoned for business. A promise of affordable units is not the same as completed homes or a guarantee that your household qualifies.

What could you ask—and what would help answer it?

The question: Which units have the affordability commitment, who can qualify for them, and have those homes actually opened?

Where to start: Ask the municipal or county planning office for the project approval, recorded affordability commitment and monitoring records. Check the income and rent requirements, completion information and application arrangements for the particular project.

Read this state’s Section E and policy evidence

Texas

Why are the promised new homes still waiting?

Suppose new homes have been announced, but the subdivision is still awaiting approval. You hear that officials have a deadline and wonder why building has not begun.

The selected Texas rule puts a clock on certain municipal plat decisions. A plat is the map dividing land into lots; approval of that map is one step, not permission to finish a house within 30 days.

What could you ask—and what would help answer it?

The question: When was the application filed, what written conditions remain, and are utilities, building permits or another approval now holding it up?

Where to start: Ask the municipal planning or development-services office for the dated application, the written decision or conditions, and the status of the other approvals. Compare the stages before deciding whether the deadline shortened the wait or merely moved it.

Read this state’s Section E and policy evidence

New York · New York City example

Could an additional apartment help you stay in your home?

Suppose you own a home in New York City and hope to create a small additional apartment to help with the mortgage. You need to know what your address permits before making plans.

City of Yes permits more kinds of housing in more places, including accessory dwelling units subject to restrictions. This is a New York City example; it is not permission for every property across New York State.

What could you ask—and what would help answer it?

The question: Does this address qualify, and what zoning, location and building-safety requirements still apply?

Where to start: Start with City Planning for the applicable zoning and the Department of Buildings for the project requirements and approvals. A zoning change, an approved application and a completed legal dwelling are separate stages.

Read this state’s Section E and policy evidence

New Jersey

Are the homes in the town’s plan actually becoming homes?

Suppose someone you know needs an affordable home, and your town announces that its housing plan provides for hundreds. You want to know what exists beyond the announcement.

The state framework gives municipalities affordable-housing obligations and a route for planning and compliance. Planned capacity, approved projects and occupied homes are different quantities.

What could you ask—and what would help answer it?

The question: Which homes are only planned, which are approved or under construction, and how many are occupied? What local spending or infrastructure is still needed?

Where to start: Ask the municipal planning office for the adopted housing plan, zoning and project decisions, and monitoring reports. DCA and the Judiciary provide the framework and dispute routes; the town’s plan alone is not a list of available apartments.

Read this state’s Section E and policy evidence

These examples help locate a question and the people responsible for answering it. They do not establish that a policy worked. In particular, New York City’s and New Jersey’s newer housing arrangements cannot explain statewide housing conditions measured before they were implemented.

Evidence, definitions and corrections

The detailed record remains available below. Source titles, observation years, table locations and qualifications belong with the numbers. Corrections made during preparation are retained so the reasoning can be inspected.

Policy checks · what was checked and what remains open

Checked October 16, 2026. This pilot describes documented policy choices and the offices responsible. It does not determine eligibility for a particular project or provide an exhaustive account of litigation. An application needs the current rule, applicable local requirements and any relevant court order.

California: current HCD guidance was checked. In City of Rancho Palos Verdes v. State (September 4, 2025), the appellate court affirmed rejection of a general-law-city challenge and distinguished the separate charter-city litigation. The latter's current trial-court status was not independently established in this review.
Florida: the 2026 amendment was checked. Bal Harbour's April 28, 2026 update records continuing litigation over a particular application. Local litigation is not treated as proof that the statewide law was invalidated; a complete statewide docket review was not performed.
Texas: the current Chapter 212 text was checked. Its deadline concerns the specified plat decision, with exceptions and separate approvals; no claim is made that every project can proceed within 30 days. A complete litigation search was not established.
New York: the example is City of Yes in New York City, not a statewide rule. Adoption and planning guidance are the basis of the description. A current appeal and injunction status was not independently confirmed, the current court status remains an open check in this pilot.
New Jersey: the enacted framework and DCA materials were checked. The Supreme Court docket for Montvale v. Davenport records denial of an injunction application on February 24, 2026. That limited order is not described as a final resolution of every challenge.

Definitions, calculations and limits

Meaning of the labels

Documented choice describes a rule or institutional responsibility. Observed outcome describes a measured condition, not necessarily a result caused by the selected policy. Intended benefit states a purpose. Interpretation is the pilot author’s reasoning. Unresolved means the available record does not establish the claim.

Scope and selection

Five states only; not a representative sample. The same finance, electricity, housing, migration and education measures appear for every state. Each housing case was selected because it provides a named decision route affecting housing opportunity and connects to the existing accountability story—not because it produces a favorable or unfavorable result. NYC is deliberately labeled a local case. No proposed repair is endorsed or costed.

Finance universe and reconciliation

FY2024 Census state/local aggregate public-use file, level1. Values are thousands of nominal dollars, displayed in billions. Use combined level1; do not sum it with state/local totals or add intergovernmental transfers. Each used item was checked against levels2+3 within $1,000 rounding. No sampled individual-government sum was substituted. Fiscal years differ; this is not a common calendar-year household account.

Tax and receipts calculations

Tax total=sum of all T codes; property=T01, general sales=T09, individual income=T40, other taxes=total minus those three. Shares divide by tax total. Collections per resident=total×1,000 / July 1, 2024 population from Vintage 2025. This measures receipts from activity, including businesses/nonresidents, not household incidence. General current charges=sum A codes below90; special assessments=U01; public-utility revenue=A91+A92+A93+A94. Public/private service provision differs; these are not a complete household-fee inventory.

Spending and obligations calculations

Direct general current=sum E codes with function below90; direct general capital=sum F codes below90; add J19 scholarships/subsidies and I89 general interest only to obtain the displayed direct general total. Function panels partition E/F without overlap. Excludes intergovernmental transfers and utility/liquor/social-insurance expenditure. F includes all capital after2021, despite stale short labels. Debt outstanding=49U+64V; annual all-purpose interest=sum I codes; long-term debt retired=39U. Retirement can include refunding, so it is not combined into an ordinary debt-service burden. No pension underfunding, guarantee equivalence or total liability assessment is supplied.

Finance reliability

Census cautions that individual units and item-code totals were not reviewed as separate accurate time series. Pilot estimates are the author’s calculations from Census original data; Census has not sanctioned or reviewed this analysis. Sampling and potentially substantial nonsampling error, imputation and classification differences can affect the figures. Item coefficients of variation are retained in verified-data.json; no aggregate significance test or change since2022 is asserted.

Housing definitions

2024 ACS one-year occupied housing units. Share spending 30% or more of household income on gross rent or selected owner costs, among units with a computable ratio. Renters: B25070(E007+E008+E009+E010)/(E001−E011). Mortgaged owners: B25091(E008…E011)/(E002−E012). Nonmortgaged owners: B25091(E019…E022)/(E013−E023). These are shares of housing units/households, not shares of individual residents. Not-computed units are excluded explicitly, not assumed unburdened. Owner costs and gross rent already incorporate certain taxes, insurance and utilities.

Housing uncertainty calculations

Approximate90% MOEs: numerator MOE is square root of summed squared component MOEs; denominator-difference MOE is square root of total-MOE²+excluded-MOE². For p=N/D, percentage-point MOE=100×sqrt(MOE_N²−p²MOE_D²)/D; use plus instead of minus if the radicand is negative, following the ratio fallback. Component estimates/MOEs are retained. Rounded output does not support close rankings; no pairwise significance tests are claimed.

Electricity definitions

Deliberate2024 annual comparison from EIA Table 5A, residential customers. Average price is residential revenue per kWh, not a quoted tariff. Average monthly consumption and bill are the published annual customer averages. Do not recreate bills by multiplying rounded displayed inputs. Differences in climate, dwellings, heating fuel, provider mix and usage matter. This is not one identical home moved between states, a complete energy budget or a current reliability measure. Final2025 data are available; the2024 label must remain unless all states are refreshed.

Population definitions

Census Vintage 2025; domestic net migration is arrivals from other U.S. states minus departures to them. Five annual intervals are July 1 of the first year through June 30 of the second. Rate=net domestic flow / average of beginning/end July 1 populations ×1,000; matches published RDOMESTICMIG. International net migration, births minus deaths and residual adjustments are separate. Component sums reconcile to population change. April 2020–June 2025 cumulative totals include the partial2020 interval and are not simply the sum of the five displayed annual points.

Education definitions

Census FY2024 Table 8 published nominal current spending per pupil; not capital, debt repayment, a regional-cost adjustment or the cost of the tested NAEP cohort. It excludes specified nongovernmental-charter finances and other programs; state exceptions apply. Table 8 row76 refers to fall2022 CCD enrollment—retained as a source-note issue requiring clarification, not silently replaced. NAEP2024 public-school math/reading, grades4/8, 0–500 scales: four separate assessments, not longitudinal learning gains. Subgroup scores are descriptive, not demographic adjustments. Disadvantage classification and group composition should not be assumed identical across states. No efficiency index or new statistical significance comparisons.

School-finance state notes

Appendix B: California excludes State Preschool Program and Head Start prekindergarten finances/enrollment and includes state retirement payments; Florida cannot isolate certain interschool payments, slightly inflating reported current/per-pupil spending; New Jersey includes on-behalf pension/Social Security payments but omits certain unallocated state debt-service revenue; NYC guidance-counselor costs are classified within instruction; Texas includes specified state on-behalf retirement, textbook and transportation payments. These qualifications do not turn missing amounts into zero.

Correction record, including unresolved C17

Dated correction record

All entries dated October 16, 2026. Earlier findings are attributed to the October 15 proposal where not independently rechecked. No article or earlier-pilot claim is called false merely because it was not resolved.

C01 · Corrected

Residential electricity

The earlier pilot's CA27.04/FL12.53/TX9.79 cents were all-sector prices. This pilot uses residential EIA Table 5A values, consumption and bills for all five states.

Basis: EIA24

C02 · Corrected

Revenue versus spending

Revenue is not expenditure. The FY2024 panel derives direct general current and capital spending by function and keeps taxes, charges and obligations separate.

Basis: FIN24;FIN-DEF

C03 · Corrected

Tax years and burden

2026 handbook publication dates do not make all tables2026 observations. New tax mix uses only FY2024 Census receipts. Neither collections per resident nor shares are household tax burden.

Basis: FIN24;TAX-HANDBOOK

C04 · Unresolved—not disproved

NY/FL2000–2024 spending-growth claim

A one-year revenue ratio does not test the article's claimed long-run spending divergence. This pilot does not reconstruct the matching historical expenditure series or determine what 'quadrupled' means.

Basis: October 15 proposal; supplied article

C05 · Verified within stated window

Domestic migration

All five annual intervals are extracted from one Census Vintage 2025 file, with rates and separate population components. CumulativeApril 2020–June 2025 totals include a2020 partial-year interval.

Basis: POP25

C06 · Excluded causal claim

Why people moved

Net domestic migration does not identify movers' motives. The sections describe direction and change only.

Basis: POP25;October 15 proposal

C07 · Omitted/unresolved

IRS AGI

Matched-return AGI is not state tax revenue lost or permanently removed production. Exact earlier-pilot amounts were not recalculated; no AGI figures are used.

Basis: IRS;October 15 proposal

C08 · Corrected

Housing affordability

Use same-year ACS 2024 one-year housing-cost shares, separating renters and owners with/without mortgages, with approximate 90% margins of error. A house-price/income ratio is not a zoning-delay measure.

Basis: ACS-R;ACS-O;ACS-MOE

C09 · Omitted/date-sensitive

Citizens counts

October 15 verification reported278,246 atJune 30, 2026 and266,231 atAugust 31. Earlier278,662 may describe anotherJune date. Counts do not establish premiums or coverage after transfer.

Basis: CITIZENS;October 15 proposal

C10 · Mechanism established; magnitude unresolved

California revenue volatility

The LAO historical analysis supports a capital-gains volatility mechanism. It does not quantify a current migration effect. No new volatility forecast is made.

Basis: CA-VOLATILITY;October 15 proposal

C11 · Corrected

Texas property taxes

Name appraisal districts, local taxing units and appraisal review boards. There is no Texas state property tax.

Basis: TX-TAX

C12 · Historical only

Uri and reliability

The2021 freeze is not a present-tense reliability score or evidence that low prices caused failure. No current outage comparison is supplied or implied.

Basis: URI;October 15 proposal

C13 · Removed absolute assertion

Low tax means another bill

Lower taxes can coexist with lower total costs, shifted costs, fewer services or combinations. This pilot does not force an offset or invent a balancing benefit.

Basis: Editorial safeguard

C14 · Unresolved/out of scope

Enforcement and municipal services

No statewide enforcement score, selective-enforcement claim, red/blue electricity tally or overall municipal-services verdict is inferred from anecdotes, income inequality or NAEP.

Basis: October 15 proposal

C15 · Updated legal source

Housing rules

California uses April 2026 HCD guidance; Florida's2025 statute is read with Chapter 2026-179; Texas's2023 completeness/timing amendments are acknowledged; NYC's rule is local; NJ's2025 monitoring adoption is recorded.

Basis: CA-HOUSING;FL-2026;TX-HOUSING;NY-ADU;NJ-HOUSING

C16 · Source-label conflict resolved

Capital expenditure codes

The FY2024 public-use short-description list still calls F codes construction. The fuller Census2024 technical documentation explains the post2021 consolidation of construction, land, buildings and equipment into capital F codes. The pilot labels them capital expenditures.

Basis: FIN24;FIN-DEF

C17 · Source note retained; denominator confirmation open

School-spending denominator

FY2024 Table 8 row76 explicitly references fall2022 CCD enrollment and2022–23 provisional files. Whether this is intentional or a stale footnote has not been established. Published per-pupil values are reproduced as published, with this note disclosed; no replacement denominator is silently assumed.

Basis: SCHOOL24

C18 · Qualified comparison

Education coverage and significance

Census finance excludes specified nongovernmental-charter finances and has state reporting notes. NAEP samples public-school students by grade/subject. Raw scores and subgroups are shown, without demographic adjustment or score-per-dollar ratios.

Basis: SCHOOL24;NAEP-RELEASE;20 state snapshots

C19 · Resolved access limitation

Data retrieval

Census API requests redirected to a missing-key page; a Census Reporter attempt returned403. Those are failed data paths, not evidence of missing state data. Public Census files supplied housing and official aggregate finance inputs.

Basis: research/downloads*.json

C20 · Deliberate vintage choice

Electricity and ACS refresh

Electricity stays2024 deliberately despite announced final2025 data; ACS stays2024 because2025 annual release is scheduled October 29, 2026. This is an editorial pilot, not a claim that all observations are current2026.

Basis: EIA-UPDATE;ACS-NEXT

C21 · Access limits recorded; alternate sources found

Policy-page completeness

NJ enrolled-law PDF failed, but enacted HTML was read and establishes its effective date and appropriations. Judiciary page still returned403; DCA supplies its official route. NYC effective date is independently corroborated by a City Planning Commission report.

Basis: NJ-LAW;NJ-HOUSING;NJ-COURTS;NY-DATE

C22 · Clarified obligation measure

Debt service

Interest and long-term debt retired are displayed separately. Debt retired can include refunding; adding it to interest would not by itself establish scheduled debt-service burden. Short-term debt is included only in outstanding debt stock.

Basis: FIN24;FIN-DEF

State evidence entries

PILOT-CA-TAX · Observed receipts + documented responsibility

California

Observed FY2024 receipts · Combined state/local taxes were $400.61bn. Of that tax total: property 24.5%; general sales 18.8%; individual income 30.7%; other taxes 25.9%. These are revenue shares, not rates charged to a household. Income, sales and property taxes all contribute. The Legislature sets state income-tax law and appropriations; the Franchise Tax Board administers personal income tax. County assessors value property under state rules, while local taxing jurisdictions and voter authorizations also matter to the property bill. Proposition 13's acquisition-value framework means a new buyer and a long-standing owner can face different assessments for similar properties; an average does not capture that difference.

Locator/calculation: State 06; level1; T01/T09/T40 and sum all T; shares=category/total. Full raw inputs in verified-data.json.

Limit: Not household burden, incidence, a single tax rate or public-service value.

FIN24 · CA-TAX · CA-FTB

PILOT-CA-HOUSING · Observed conditions; derived estimate

California

Renters: 55.8% ±0.6pp; Owners with mortgage: 39.4% ±0.4pp; Owners without mortgage: 18.0% ±0.4pp

Locator/calculation: GEO_ID=0400000US06; exact numerator/denominator cells in definitions and verified-data.json.

Limit: 2024 one-year sampling estimates; computable ratios only; no causal policy claim.

ACS-R · ACS-O · ACS-SHELL · ACS-MOE

PILOT-CA-POWER · Observed outcomes + documented responsibility

California

31.97c/kWh; 503kWh/month; $160.86/month. For investor-owned utility rates, follow the California Public Utilities Commission's rate proceedings. Publicly owned utilities have local governing bodies; the CPUC does not set all California electricity prices.

Locator/calculation: Table 5A state row; published values transcribed and checked.

Limit: Deliberate2024; no common-household or current-reliability inference.

EIA24 · CA-POWER

PILOT-CA-MIGRATION · Observed population estimates

California

2020–2021: -470,759 (-11.97/1,000); 2021–2022: -344,130 (-8.79/1,000); 2022–2023: -343,891 (-8.78/1,000); 2023–2024: -241,611 (-6.15/1,000); 2024–2025: -229,077 (-5.82/1,000)

Locator/calculation: STATE=06; DOMESTICMIG/RDOMESTICMIG2021–2025; rates and components reconciled.

Limit: Net flows do not identify motives. All annual points same vintage; no2012–2024 verification.

POP25

PILOT-CA-FINANCE · Derived spending and obligations

California

Direct general spending $742.44bn; current $653.58bn; capital $61.94bn; separate J19/I89. Debt stock $597.20bn.

Locator/calculation: State 06 level1; E/F below90; functions/code lists in verified-data.json; debt49U+64V; no transfer double count.

Limit: Census original data; author-derived aggregates not Census-reviewed. No time-series or legal-guarantee inference.

FIN24 · FIN-DEF

PILOT-CA-SCHOOLS · Observed published finance and assessment

California

Published per pupil $20,791; math grade 4 233; math grade 8 269; reading grade 4 212; reading grade 8 254

Locator/calculation: Table 8 C17; NAEP p.1 overall and subgroup rows.

Limit: C17 unresolved denominator note; distinct populations; nominal finance; no new significance/efficiency claim.

SCHOOL24 · NAEP-CA-math-4 · NAEP-CA-math-8 · NAEP-CA-reading-4 · NAEP-CA-reading-8

PILOT-CA-CHOICE · Documented policy choice

California

SB 9, effective January 1, 2022, created a ministerial route for qualifying two-unit developments and urban lot splits. HCD's April 2026 guidance incorporates later changes, including SB 450 (2024) and AB 1061 (2025). Eligibility and tenant, historic-resource and environmental protections still apply. The Legislature enacted the framework; city or county planning staff review applications. California HCD has a state enforcement role. A federal agency does not grant this local land-use approval; financing and other federal requirements can be separate.

Locator/calculation: Named provisions and dates in source register.

Limit: Scoped mechanism; not comprehensive local legal/litigation clearance.

CA-HOUSING · CA-SB9-DATE · CA-HAU

PILOT-CA-PURPOSE · Intended benefit / interpretation

California

Allow additional homes on eligible parcels and reduce discretionary approval barriers. This is a stated policy purpose, not a measured affordability gain.

Locator/calculation: Purpose and mechanism, not an estimated treatment effect.

Limit: Intended gain not treated as delivered benefit.

CA-HOUSING · CA-SB9-DATE · CA-HAU

PILOT-CA-POLICY-RESULT · Documented implementation + unresolved outcome

California

The documented procedure changes who may approve a qualifying proposal and the standards they may apply. The statewide housing-burden figures describe the surrounding problem; this pilot has not measured SB 9 completions, applicant costs or rent reductions. How often eligible owners can finance a project, how many approved units become occupied homes, and the net effect on rents and displacement remain unmeasured here. Local implementation and applicable litigation require a project-specific check.

Locator/calculation: Source/register locators; missing outcome series explicitly named.

Limit: No causal attribution from statewide2024 measures; future/newer programs cannot explain earlier data.

CA-HOUSING · CA-SB9-DATE · CA-HAU

PILOT-CA-INTERPRETATION · Interpretation

California

This connects the original accountability story to a specific maintenance test: a statewide permission is only useful if a resident can understand and use the local process. Whether this produces enough homes at an acceptable cost is a separate outcome question.

Locator/calculation: Analytical bridge to preserved canonical snapshot; not a new verified statewide result.

Limit: Could be challenged by implementation evidence; no forced symmetry.

CA-HOUSING · CA-SB9-DATE · CA-HAU

PILOT-FL-TAX · Observed receipts + documented responsibility

Florida

Observed FY2024 receipts · Combined state/local taxes were $124.54bn. Of that tax total: property 37.4%; general sales 36.8%; individual income 0.0%; other taxes 25.8%. These are revenue shares, not rates charged to a household. Florida does not levy a personal income tax. The Legislature sets state tax law and the Department of Revenue administers state sales taxes. County property appraisers determine property values; counties, municipalities, school boards and other taxing authorities adopt their own levies. Tax collectors collect and distribute the money. A valuation dispute and a disagreement with a spending decision have different destinations.

Locator/calculation: State 12; level1; T01/T09/T40 and sum all T; shares=category/total. Full raw inputs in verified-data.json.

Limit: Not household burden, incidence, a single tax rate or public-service value.

FIN24 · FL-TAX · FL-LOCAL

PILOT-FL-HOUSING · Observed conditions; derived estimate

Florida

Renters: 62.1% ±0.8pp; Owners with mortgage: 38.3% ±0.6pp; Owners without mortgage: 19.7% ±0.5pp

Locator/calculation: GEO_ID=0400000US12; exact numerator/denominator cells in definitions and verified-data.json.

Limit: 2024 one-year sampling estimates; computable ratios only; no causal policy claim.

ACS-R · ACS-O · ACS-SHELL · ACS-MOE

PILOT-FL-POWER · Observed outcomes + documented responsibility

Florida

14.14c/kWh; 1104kWh/month; $156.09/month. The Florida Public Service Commission regulates investor-owned electric utilities. Municipal and cooperative utilities have different rate governance, although the PSC retains specified jurisdiction over such matters as rate structure and service territories. Identify the utility before choosing the oversight route.

Locator/calculation: Table 5A state row; published values transcribed and checked.

Limit: Deliberate2024; no common-household or current-reliability inference.

EIA24 · FL-POWER

PILOT-FL-MIGRATION · Observed population estimates

Florida

2020–2021: +253,220 (+11.66/1,000); 2021–2022: +310,892 (+14.05/1,000); 2022–2023: +183,646 (+8.10/1,000); 2023–2024: +58,411 (+2.53/1,000); 2024–2025: +22,517 (+0.96/1,000)

Locator/calculation: STATE=12; DOMESTICMIG/RDOMESTICMIG2021–2025; rates and components reconciled.

Limit: Net flows do not identify motives. All annual points same vintage; no2012–2024 verification.

POP25

PILOT-FL-FINANCE · Derived spending and obligations

Florida

Direct general spending $246.61bn; current $205.74bn; capital $31.49bn; separate J19/I89. Debt stock $132.57bn.

Locator/calculation: State 12 level1; E/F below90; functions/code lists in verified-data.json; debt49U+64V; no transfer double count.

Limit: Census original data; author-derived aggregates not Census-reviewed. No time-series or legal-guarantee inference.

FIN24 · FIN-DEF

PILOT-FL-SCHOOLS · Observed published finance and assessment

Florida

Published per pupil $12,693; math grade 4 243; math grade 8 267; reading grade 4 218; reading grade 8 253

Locator/calculation: Table 8 C23; NAEP p.1 overall and subgroup rows.

Limit: C17 unresolved denominator note; distinct populations; nominal finance; no new significance/efficiency claim.

SCHOOL24 · NAEP-FL-math-4 · NAEP-FL-math-8 · NAEP-FL-reading-4 · NAEP-FL-reading-8

PILOT-FL-CHOICE · Documented policy choice

Florida

The 2023 Live Local Act, effective July 1, 2023, established a qualifying multifamily and mixed-use rental route on specified commercial, industrial and mixed-use land. The core affordability condition is at least 40% qualifying rental units for at least 30 years. Later amendments matter: Chapter 2026-179 took effect July 1, 2026. The Legislature sets the eligibility and limits on local discretion; municipal or county planning officials apply the relevant provision. Section 166.04151 governs municipalities; section 125.01055 is the county counterpart. Federal funding or environmental approvals, when applicable, are separate.

Locator/calculation: Named provisions and dates in source register.

Limit: Scoped mechanism; not comprehensive local legal/litigation clearance.

FL-HOUSING · FL-2026 · FL-2023

PILOT-FL-PURPOSE · Intended benefit / interpretation

Florida

Enable more qualifying rental development while securing a long affordability commitment for part of the project.

Locator/calculation: Purpose and mechanism, not an estimated treatment effect.

Limit: Intended gain not treated as delivered benefit.

FL-HOUSING · FL-2026 · FL-2023

PILOT-FL-POLICY-RESULT · Documented implementation + unresolved outcome

Florida

The law documents permission and conditions; it is not a count of completed apartments. The 2026 amendment also changes covered sites and development restrictions. This pilot has not established statewide completions, total subsidy cost or a causal reduction in rent burdens. Financing, infrastructure capacity, actual delivery and who receives the affordable units remain outcome questions. Application dates can affect applicable provisions. A project needs the current amended text, not a copied 2023 checklist.

Locator/calculation: Source/register locators; missing outcome series explicitly named.

Limit: No causal attribution from statewide2024 measures; future/newer programs cannot explain earlier data.

FL-HOUSING · FL-2026 · FL-2023

PILOT-FL-INTERPRETATION · Interpretation

Florida

An absence of personal income tax is a concrete feature; it does not answer what a renter pays to live here. The useful connection to the original story is whether residents can trace the approval, affordability promise and delivered units through public records.

Locator/calculation: Analytical bridge to preserved canonical snapshot; not a new verified statewide result.

Limit: Could be challenged by implementation evidence; no forced symmetry.

FL-HOUSING · FL-2026 · FL-2023

PILOT-TX-TAX · Observed receipts + documented responsibility

Texas

Observed FY2024 receipts · Combined state/local taxes were $177.58bn. Of that tax total: property 40.9%; general sales 37.8%; individual income 0.0%; other taxes 21.3%. These are revenue shares, not rates charged to a household. Texas's FY2024 individual-income-tax receipts were zero in this Census series. Property taxes are local, not a Texas state property tax. Appraisal districts value property; cities, counties, school districts and other taxing units set rates; appraisal review boards hear valuation protests. The Legislature controls the state legal framework, while the Comptroller administers state taxes and provides property-tax oversight and guidance.

Locator/calculation: State 48; level1; T01/T09/T40 and sum all T; shares=category/total. Full raw inputs in verified-data.json.

Limit: Not household burden, incidence, a single tax rate or public-service value.

FIN24 · TX-TAX

PILOT-TX-HOUSING · Observed conditions; derived estimate

Texas

Renters: 52.7% ±0.7pp; Owners with mortgage: 30.8% ±0.5pp; Owners without mortgage: 15.0% ±0.4pp

Locator/calculation: GEO_ID=0400000US48; exact numerator/denominator cells in definitions and verified-data.json.

Limit: 2024 one-year sampling estimates; computable ratios only; no causal policy claim.

ACS-R · ACS-O · ACS-SHELL · ACS-MOE

PILOT-TX-POWER · Observed outcomes + documented responsibility

Texas

14.94c/kWh; 1096kWh/month; $163.72/month. In competitive service areas, a retail electric provider sells the supply contract while a transmission-and-distribution utility delivers power. The Public Utility Commission oversees the applicable rules. Municipal utilities, cooperatives and some other service areas differ; Texas is not one universal retail-choice market.

Locator/calculation: Table 5A state row; published values transcribed and checked.

Limit: Deliberate2024; no common-household or current-reliability inference.

EIA24 · TX-POWER

PILOT-TX-MIGRATION · Observed population estimates

Texas

2020–2021: +199,360 (+6.78/1,000); 2021–2022: +218,840 (+7.33/1,000); 2022–2023: +188,667 (+6.20/1,000); 2023–2024: +86,067 (+2.77/1,000); 2024–2025: +67,299 (+2.14/1,000)

Locator/calculation: STATE=48; DOMESTICMIG/RDOMESTICMIG2021–2025; rates and components reconciled.

Limit: Net flows do not identify motives. All annual points same vintage; no2012–2024 verification.

POP25

PILOT-TX-FINANCE · Derived spending and obligations

Texas

Direct general spending $359.87bn; current $287.51bn; capital $57.65bn; separate J19/I89. Debt stock $389.33bn.

Locator/calculation: State 48 level1; E/F below90; functions/code lists in verified-data.json; debt49U+64V; no transfer double count.

Limit: Census original data; author-derived aggregates not Census-reviewed. No time-series or legal-guarantee inference.

FIN24 · FIN-DEF

PILOT-TX-SCHOOLS · Observed published finance and assessment

Texas

Published per pupil $12,895; math grade 4 241; math grade 8 269; reading grade 4 212; reading grade 8 252

Locator/calculation: Table 8 C64; NAEP p.1 overall and subgroup rows.

Limit: C17 unresolved denominator note; distinct populations; nominal finance; no new significance/efficiency claim.

SCHOOL24 · NAEP-TX-math-4 · NAEP-TX-math-8 · NAEP-TX-reading-4 · NAEP-TX-reading-8

PILOT-TX-CHOICE · Documented policy choice

Texas

HB 3167's approval-procedure changes took effect September 1, 2019. Current Local Government Code §212.009 requires the municipal authority to approve, conditionally approve or disapprove a filed plat within 30 days, subject to statutory provisions and extensions. This is a plat decision, not a promise that a house can be built in 30 days. The 2023 amendments address application completeness; additional governing-body review and statutory timing exceptions can extend the overall process. The Legislature sets the procedure. The designated municipal plat-approval authority applies it; applicants must satisfy relevant requirements. Building permits, utilities and other approvals are separate, and this example does not describe every county procedure.

Locator/calculation: Named provisions and dates in source register.

Limit: Scoped mechanism; not comprehensive local legal/litigation clearance.

TX-HOUSING

PILOT-TX-PURPOSE · Intended benefit / interpretation

Texas

Make the decision timetable and reasons for rejection more predictable. This is the procedural rationale; statewide time or cost savings are not established here.

Locator/calculation: Purpose and mechanism, not an estimated treatment effect.

Limit: Intended gain not treated as delivered benefit.

TX-HOUSING

PILOT-TX-POLICY-RESULT · Documented implementation + unresolved outcome

Texas

A statutory deadline and response procedure are documented. No matched before-and-after series of complete-application dates, decisions, completions or applicant costs was established for this pilot. Whether delay shifted to application completeness, infrastructure or other permits is unresolved. Faster decisions could reduce carrying costs, but that is an interpretation until measured; staffing and review capacity also need examination.

Locator/calculation: Source/register locators; missing outcome series explicitly named.

Limit: No causal attribution from statewide2024 measures; future/newer programs cannot explain earlier data.

TX-HOUSING

PILOT-TX-INTERPRETATION · Interpretation

Texas

The original sunset-review distinction applies here too: adopting a repair is evidence of action, not proof of its results. The electricity comparison likewise separates a lower unit price from the bill generated by actual consumption.

Locator/calculation: Analytical bridge to preserved canonical snapshot; not a new verified statewide result.

Limit: Could be challenged by implementation evidence; no forced symmetry.

TX-HOUSING

PILOT-NY-TAX · Observed receipts + documented responsibility

New York

Observed FY2024 receipts · Combined state/local taxes were $245.50bn. Of that tax total: property 28.8%; general sales 17.6%; individual income 28.3%; other taxes 25.2%. These are revenue shares, not rates charged to a household. State income-tax rules come from Albany and are administered by the Department of Taxation and Finance. New York City and Yonkers have additional income-tax provisions. Property taxes are local, financing local governments and schools; local assessors and taxing bodies are the relevant starting points. A state average is not a New York City tax bill, nor an upstate homeowner's bill.

Locator/calculation: State 36; level1; T01/T09/T40 and sum all T; shares=category/total. Full raw inputs in verified-data.json.

Limit: Not household burden, incidence, a single tax rate or public-service value.

FIN24 · NY-TAX · NY-LOCAL-INCOME

PILOT-NY-HOUSING · Observed conditions; derived estimate

New York

Renters: 51.5% ±0.7pp; Owners with mortgage: 33.6% ±0.6pp; Owners without mortgage: 20.2% ±0.5pp

Locator/calculation: GEO_ID=0400000US36; exact numerator/denominator cells in definitions and verified-data.json.

Limit: 2024 one-year sampling estimates; computable ratios only; no causal policy claim.

ACS-R · ACS-O · ACS-SHELL · ACS-MOE

PILOT-NY-POWER · Observed outcomes + documented responsibility

New York

24.43c/kWh; 571kWh/month; $139.53/month. For regulated utility charges, follow Public Service Commission tariffs and proceedings through the Department of Public Service. Where energy-supplier choice applies, a supply contract and the utility's delivery charges are separate. Public-power arrangements require checking the particular provider.

Locator/calculation: Table 5A state row; published values transcribed and checked.

Limit: Deliberate2024; no common-household or current-reliability inference.

EIA24 · NY-POWER

PILOT-NY-MIGRATION · Observed population estimates

New York

2020–2021: -326,190 (-16.33/1,000); 2021–2022: -284,910 (-14.41/1,000); 2022–2023: -177,852 (-9.01/1,000); 2023–2024: -119,231 (-5.99/1,000); 2024–2025: -137,586 (-6.88/1,000)

Locator/calculation: STATE=36; DOMESTICMIG/RDOMESTICMIG2021–2025; rates and components reconciled.

Limit: Net flows do not identify motives. All annual points same vintage; no2012–2024 verification.

POP25

PILOT-NY-FINANCE · Derived spending and obligations

New York

Direct general spending $397.03bn; current $349.45bn; capital $30.75bn; separate J19/I89. Debt stock $332.65bn.

Locator/calculation: State 36 level1; E/F below90; functions/code lists in verified-data.json; debt49U+64V; no transfer double count.

Limit: Census original data; author-derived aggregates not Census-reviewed. No time-series or legal-guarantee inference.

FIN24 · FIN-DEF

PILOT-NY-SCHOOLS · Observed published finance and assessment

New York

Published per pupil $31,918; math grade 4 234; math grade 8 271; reading grade 4 215; reading grade 8 257

Locator/calculation: Table 8 C51; NAEP p.1 overall and subgroup rows.

Limit: C17 unresolved denominator note; distinct populations; nominal finance; no new significance/efficiency claim.

SCHOOL24 · NAEP-NY-math-4 · NAEP-NY-math-8 · NAEP-NY-reading-4 · NAEP-NY-reading-8

PILOT-NY-CHOICE · Documented policy choice

New York

The New York City Council adopted City of Yes for Housing Opportunity, effective December 5, 2024. The zoning changes include accessory dwelling units subject to location and safety restrictions. This is explicitly a New York City case, not a statewide building rule. The City Council adopted the zoning amendment; the Department of City Planning explains the zoning framework and the Department of Buildings handles building approvals. State law and building requirements also constrain implementation. Federal funding is not the zoning decision-maker.

Locator/calculation: Named provisions and dates in source register.

Limit: Scoped mechanism; not comprehensive local legal/litigation clearance.

NY-HOUSING · NY-ADU · NY-DATE

PILOT-NY-PURPOSE · Intended benefit / interpretation

New York

Increase housing opportunities within an already built-up city, including smaller additional homes. That is a program aim, not evidence that statewide rents fell.

Locator/calculation: Purpose and mechanism, not an estimated treatment effect.

Limit: Intended gain not treated as delivered benefit.

NY-HOUSING · NY-ADU · NY-DATE

PILOT-NY-POLICY-RESULT · Documented implementation + unresolved outcome

New York

The zoning amendment was adopted. The statewide 2024 ACS burden figure is not an outcome evaluation of a city rule adopted at the end of that year. No causal rent effect, verified completion total or complete implementation-cost measure is claimed here. How many feasible projects are approved and occupied, their affordability and neighborhood infrastructure effects need follow-up. The location restrictions and later building-code implementation must be checked for a specific property.

Locator/calculation: Source/register locators; missing outcome series explicitly named.

Limit: No causal attribution from statewide2024 measures; future/newer programs cannot explain earlier data.

NY-HOUSING · NY-ADU · NY-DATE

PILOT-NY-INTERPRETATION · Interpretation

New York

This example makes the jurisdiction visible. Comparing a statewide housing statistic with a city action can frame a question, but cannot establish the action's effect. Similarly, an authority's separate debt is not automatically a state-guaranteed obligation.

Locator/calculation: Analytical bridge to preserved canonical snapshot; not a new verified statewide result.

Limit: Could be challenged by implementation evidence; no forced symmetry.

NY-HOUSING · NY-ADU · NY-DATE

PILOT-NJ-TAX · Observed receipts + documented responsibility

New Jersey

Observed FY2024 receipts · Combined state/local taxes were $86.03bn. Of that tax total: property 40.5%; general sales 16.6%; individual income 21.9%; other taxes 20.9%. These are revenue shares, not rates charged to a household. New Jersey's Division of Taxation administers state taxes. County, municipal and school budgets help determine local property-tax requirements; local assessors establish assessments and county tax boards provide an appeal route. The state does not receive the local property-tax collections. A resident disputing assessed value needs a different process from one seeking a change in school or municipal spending.

Locator/calculation: State 34; level1; T01/T09/T40 and sum all T; shares=category/total. Full raw inputs in verified-data.json.

Limit: Not household burden, incidence, a single tax rate or public-service value.

FIN24 · NJ-TAX

PILOT-NJ-HOUSING · Observed conditions; derived estimate

New Jersey

Renters: 52.2% ±1.2pp; Owners with mortgage: 32.0% ±0.8pp; Owners without mortgage: 21.6% ±0.9pp

Locator/calculation: GEO_ID=0400000US34; exact numerator/denominator cells in definitions and verified-data.json.

Limit: 2024 one-year sampling estimates; computable ratios only; no causal policy claim.

ACS-R · ACS-O · ACS-SHELL · ACS-MOE

PILOT-NJ-POWER · Observed outcomes + documented responsibility

New Jersey

19.34c/kWh; 662kWh/month; $128.13/month. The Board of Public Utilities regulates relevant utility charges. A customer's electric bill separates supply from delivery; third-party supply offers do not eliminate the distribution utility. Ask which portion of the bill changed before attributing the increase to one decision.

Locator/calculation: Table 5A state row; published values transcribed and checked.

Limit: Deliberate2024; no common-household or current-reliability inference.

EIA24 · NJ-POWER

PILOT-NJ-MIGRATION · Observed population estimates

New Jersey

2020–2021: -34,314 (-3.70/1,000); 2021–2022: -62,174 (-6.70/1,000); 2022–2023: -41,714 (-4.46/1,000); 2023–2024: -35,501 (-3.76/1,000); 2024–2025: -37,428 (-3.93/1,000)

Locator/calculation: STATE=34; DOMESTICMIG/RDOMESTICMIG2021–2025; rates and components reconciled.

Limit: Net flows do not identify motives. All annual points same vintage; no2012–2024 verification.

POP25

PILOT-NJ-FINANCE · Derived spending and obligations

New Jersey

Direct general spending $134.62bn; current $120.40bn; capital $8.70bn; separate J19/I89. Debt stock $89.19bn.

Locator/calculation: State 34 level1; E/F below90; functions/code lists in verified-data.json; debt49U+64V; no transfer double count.

Limit: Census original data; author-derived aggregates not Census-reviewed. No time-series or legal-guarantee inference.

FIN24 · FIN-DEF

PILOT-NJ-SCHOOLS · Observed published finance and assessment

New Jersey

Published per pupil $27,234; math grade 4 240; math grade 8 282; reading grade 4 222; reading grade 8 266

Locator/calculation: Table 8 C49; NAEP p.1 overall and subgroup rows.

Limit: C17 unresolved denominator note; distinct populations; nominal finance; no new significance/efficiency claim.

SCHOOL24 · NAEP-NJ-math-4 · NAEP-NJ-math-8 · NAEP-NJ-reading-4 · NAEP-NJ-reading-8

PILOT-NJ-CHOICE · Documented policy choice

New Jersey

P.L.2024, c.2, approved and effective March 20, 2024 (§39), revised the Fair Housing Act framework for municipal affordable-housing obligations. The fourth round covers 2025–2035. DCA's monitoring rules were adopted December 15, 2025. This framework calls for local planning and compliance, not automatic construction of a statewide quota on a single date. The Legislature set the framework; DCA calculates need and collects monitoring information; municipalities prepare plans and zoning measures; the Judiciary's Affordable Housing Dispute Resolution Program addresses disputes. Federal housing assistance, if used, is a separate funding layer.

Locator/calculation: Named provisions and dates in source register.

Limit: Scoped mechanism; not comprehensive local legal/litigation clearance.

NJ-HOUSING · NJ-ROUND · NJ-COURTS · NJ-LAW

PILOT-NJ-PURPOSE · Intended benefit / interpretation

New Jersey

Give municipalities a defined route to meeting affordable-housing obligations and make compliance and delivery more inspectable.

Locator/calculation: Purpose and mechanism, not an estimated treatment effect.

Limit: Intended gain not treated as delivered benefit.

NJ-HOUSING · NJ-ROUND · NJ-COURTS · NJ-LAW

PILOT-NJ-POLICY-RESULT · Documented implementation + unresolved outcome

New Jersey

DCA has issued calculations and established reporting arrangements. Planned capacity, approved projects and occupied affordable homes are different quantities. This pilot has not measured the framework's net completed units, total local costs or causal effect on housing burdens. Section 38 authorized $12 million for the dispute-resolution program and $4 million for DCA; these are appropriations, not verified expenditures or a complete implementation cost. Local plan disputes, project feasibility, infrastructure needs and the distribution of benefits and costs require municipality-level evidence. The 2024 housing survey predates the fourth-round implementation period.

Locator/calculation: Source/register locators; missing outcome series explicitly named.

Limit: No causal attribution from statewide2024 measures; future/newer programs cannot explain earlier data.

NJ-HOUSING · NJ-ROUND · NJ-COURTS · NJ-LAW

PILOT-NJ-INTERPRETATION · Interpretation

New Jersey

The choice is neither wholly Trenton's nor wholly the town's: state obligations, municipal land-use decisions and a dispute process interact. That is a concrete example of the original review's request to follow the particular service.

Locator/calculation: Analytical bridge to preserved canonical snapshot; not a new verified statewide result.

Limit: Could be challenged by implementation evidence; no forced symmetry.

NJ-HOUSING · NJ-ROUND · NJ-COURTS · NJ-LAW

Source register · titles, versions and exact locations

External source register

Access date is October 16, 2026 unless expressly carried from the October 15 proposal. Access/crawl dates are not publication dates. Raw downloaded files and hashes are in research/downloads*.json; failed paths are retained as failures. A linked official page is not a claim that every linked document was read.

FIN24 · Census FY2024 state and local government finance public-use release

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances/tables/2024/2024_Individual_Unit_Files.zip

FY2024; July 2026 release; archive dated August 4, 2026

24statetypepu.txt, state FIPS + level 1 + item codes; technical documentation pp.1–2 and disclaimer. Census original data; pilot calculations, not Census-reviewed analysis.

FIN-DEF · Census FY2024 finance definitions

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/state/technical-documentation/complete-technical-documentation/statetechdoc2024.pdf

FY2024 technical documentation

Coding and Classification Changes Since 2021; item-code descriptions. F codes are capital expenditures, not merely construction.

EIA24 · EIA Table 5A, residential monthly bills

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/table_5A.pdf

2024 observations; table issue date not printed

State rows; NY/NJ/FL/TX p.1, CA p.2. Residential customers; average price cents/kWh, average monthly kWh and dollars. Published values, not multiplied rounded inputs.

EIA-UPDATE · EIA sales and revenue release notice

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/

Final 2025 EIA-861 release announced October 7, 2026

Discontinued summary-product notice. Pilot deliberately retains 2024; it is not the latest observation year.

ACS-R · Census ACS 2024 one-year B25070

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2024-b25070.dat

2024 one-year; released September 11, 2025

Renter-occupied housing units. E007–E010 summed / (E001–E011); excludes not-computed ratios. M columns are 90% margins of error.

ACS-O · Census ACS 2024 one-year B25091

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2024-b25091.dat

2024 one-year; released September 11, 2025

Owner-occupied units. Mortgaged: E008–E011 / (E002–E012); nonmortgaged: E019–E022 / (E013–E023). M columns supply margins of error.

ACS-SHELL · Census ACS 2024 table shells

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/documentation/ACS 2024_Table_Shells.xlsx

2024 table definitions

B25070 and B25091 rows: universes and category labels. Cost threshold is 30% or more, not strictly over 30%.

ACS-MOE · Census ACS handbook: derived-estimate uncertainty

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2008/acs/ACSMediaHandbook.pdf

November 2008 methodological guidance

Appendix A-14 and following, derived sums/proportions. Approximate 90% MOEs; not a new survey or a 2008 data comparison.

ACS-COST · Census 2024 housing-cost definitions and release

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/acs-1-year-estimates.html

September 11, 2025; 2024 observations

Gross rent and selected monthly owner costs; utilities, taxes and insurance can overlap separate panels.

ACS-NEXT · Census 2025 ACS release schedule

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases/2025/release.html

Schedule checked October 16, 2026

2025 one-year release scheduled October 29, 2026; refresh if publication follows it.

POP25 · Census Vintage 2025 state population components

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/state/totals/NST-EST2025-ALLDATA.csv

Vintage 2025; January 2026 release

SUMLEV=040, STATE=06/12/48/36/34; DOMESTICMIG2021–2025 and RDOMESTICMIG2021–2025. Annual intervals July 1–June 30. Natural/international/residual fields kept separately.

POP-RELEASE · Census population release

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/population-growth-slows.html

January 2026; Vintage 2025

Population components and release context.

SCHOOL24 · Census FY2024 school-finance summary tables

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/school-finances/tables/2024/secondary-education-finance/elsec24_sumtables.xlsx

FY2024; released May 7, 2026

Table 8 column C: CA C17, FL C23, NJ C49, NY C51, TX C64. Nominal current spending per pupil. Row76 enrollment note and Appendix B retained; see correction C17.

NAEP-RELEASE · National Assessment Governing Board 2024 release

https://www.nagb.gov/news-and-events/news-releases/2025/nations-report-card-decline-in-reading-progress-in-math.html

January 29, 2025; testing January–March 2024

Grade 4/8 math and reading release. Individual state/grade/subject PDFs are separately registered.

CA-TAX · California BOE: property tax overview

https://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/pdf/pub29.pdf

Publication version as accessed October 16, 2026

Proposition 13 and assessment framework; new versus long-standing owners. Not a household burden model.

CA-FTB · California Franchise Tax Board: About us

https://www.ftb.ca.gov/about-ftb/index.html

Updated September 25, 2026

Agency administration and mission; not an individual tax calculation.

CA-POWER · CPUC: electric rates

https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/electrical-energy/electric-rates

Undated live guidance; accessed October 16, 2026

Rate proceedings and distinction between investor-owned and publicly owned utilities.

CA-HOUSING · HCD: Duplexes and Lot Splits (SB9)

https://www.hcd.ca.gov/sites/default/files/docs/planning-and-community/lot-splits-and-duplexes-sb-9.pdf

April 2026; four pages

pp.1–2 procedure and eligibility; pp.3–4 protections and legislative highlights. Read through web PDF extraction; direct download returned403.

CA-SB9-DATE · Los Angeles Department of Building and Safety: SB9

https://dbs.lacity.gov/services/special-assistance/senate-bill-9-two-unit-development-and-urban-lot-split

Undated current page; historical effective date January 1, 2022

Opening description verifies original effective date; not used as statewide current implementation guidance.

CA-HAU · HCD Housing Accountability Unit enforcement authority

https://www.hcd.ca.gov/hau/enforcement-authority

Undated; accessed October 16, 2026

SB9 enforcement and guidance route.

FL-TAX · Florida Revenue: Other Taxes and Fees

https://floridarevenue.com/Forms_library/current/brochure/gt800025.pdf

Current brochure accessed October 16, 2026; issue date not established

Personal income tax absence and state tax administration.

FL-LOCAL · Florida Revenue: local property-tax officials

https://www.floridarevenue.com/property/Pages/LocalOfficials.aspx

Undated; accessed October 16, 2026

Appraisers, taxing authorities, tax collectors and value adjustment boards.

FL-POWER · Florida PSC: About

https://www.psc.state.fl.us/about

Undated; accessed October 16, 2026

Different jurisdiction over investor-owned, municipal and cooperative utilities.

FL-HOUSING · Florida Statutes §166.04151

https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2025/166.04151

2025 codified edition, read with 2026 amendment

Subsection7 qualifying development; county counterpart §125.01055. Not presented as unamended current law.

FL-2026 · Florida Chapter2026-179

https://laws.flrules.org/2026/179

Approved June 26, 2026; effective July 1, 2026

pp.1–7 amendments to municipal/county provisions; §13 effective date. §3 contains specified retroactivity; §4 application transitions.

FL-2023 · Florida Senate SB102 status

https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2023/102

Chapter 2023-17; effective July 1, 2023 except as provided

Original Live Local Act history; later amendments separately acknowledged.

TX-TAX · Texas Comptroller: Property Tax System Basics

https://comptroller.texas.gov/taxes/property-tax/basics.php

Undated; accessed October 16, 2026

No state property tax; appraisal districts, taxing units, review boards and collection roles.

TX-POWER · Texas Utilities Code Chapter39

https://tcss.legis.texas.gov/resources/UT/htm/UT.39.htm

Current official text accessed October 16, 2026

§§39.102–39.103 retail choice and exclusions; delivery separate from supply. January 1, 2002 initial choice date, with geographic exceptions.

TX-HOUSING · Texas Local Government Code Chapter212

https://tcss.legis.texas.gov/resources/LG/htm/LG.212.htm

Official text accessed October 16, 2026; 2019 and2023 amendment history

§§212.0081, .0085, .009–.0095. §212.009 includes separate governing-body review and timing exceptions; not an all-permits deadline.

NY-TAX · New York Tax Department: property taxes

https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/property/learn/proptax.htm

Undated; accessed October 16, 2026

Property tax is raised and spent locally. Old illustrative dollar totals on page are not reused.

NY-LOCAL-INCOME · New York Tax Department: NYC and Yonkers

https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/file/nyc_yonkers_residents.htm

Undated; accessed October 16, 2026

Local income-tax residence distinctions, not a single statewide household rate.

NY-POWER · New York DPS: how to shop for energy

https://dps.ny.gov/how-shop-energy-services

Undated; accessed October 16, 2026

Supply contracts, utility delivery and DPS oversight; provider-specific applicability.

NY-HOUSING · NYC Planning: City of Yes for Housing Opportunity

https://www.nyc.gov/content/planning/pages/our-work/plans/citywide/city-of-yes-housing-opportunity

Adopted December 5, 2024; current page accessed October 16, 2026

Official page indexed adoption date; navigation-only full text extraction. Exact date independently corroborated by NY-DATE p.2.

NY-ADU · NYC Planning: Accessory Dwelling Units handout

https://www.nyc.gov/assets/planning/downloads/pdf/our-work/plans/citywide/city-of-yes-housing-opportunity/housing-opportunity-guide-adus.pdf

Undated post-adoption handout

p.1 History and The Rules. City jurisdiction; flood/historic/location restrictions. Does not establish completed units.

NJ-TAX · NJ Taxation: General Property Tax Information

https://www.nj.gov/treasury/taxation/lpt/genlpt.shtml

Undated; accessed October 16, 2026

County/municipal/school budget roles, local assessments and county tax boards.

NJ-POWER · NJ BPU: residential customers

https://www.nj.gov/bpu/residential/

Undated; accessed October 16, 2026

Supply/delivery distinction and consumer assistance routes.

NJ-HOUSING · NJ DCA: Fair Housing Act Administration

https://www.nj.gov/dca/dlps/hss/index.shtml

Law signed March 20, 2024; monitoring rules adopted December 15, 2025

Agency description of calculations, monitoring and linked dispute-resolution route; read with enacted NJ-LAW HTML.

NJ-ROUND · NJ DCA: fourth-round calculations

https://nj.gov/dca/dlps/4th_Round_Numbers.shtml

Fourth round2025–2035; accessed October 16, 2026

Municipal obligation calculations and methodology; obligations are not completed units.

NJ-COURTS · NJ Judiciary: Affordable Housing Dispute Resolution Program

https://www.njcourts.gov/courts/civil/affordable-housing

Route linked by NJ DCA; direct fetch403

Navigation route only; program existence supported by NJ-HOUSING. Page contents not claimed read.

CA-VOLATILITY · California LAO: personal-income-tax volatility

https://www.lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3548

January 2017 historical analysis

Carried from October 15 proposal; supports mechanism, not current migration effect.

IRS · IRS migration data and methodology

https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data

Methodology break2022–2023; see October 15 proposal

Exact AGI claims omitted; not a tax-revenue-loss measure.

CITIZENS · Citizens policies in force

https://www.citizensfla.com/policies-in-force

June 30/August 31, 2026 observations checked in October 15 proposal

Counts are not premium or coverage comparisons; not used as a pilot outcome.

URI · FERC/NERC 2021 freeze findings

https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-nerc-staff-review-2021-winter-freeze-recommend-standards-improvements

September 2021; checked in October 15 proposal

Historical event only; no current-reliability inference.

TAX-HANDBOOK · Tax Foundation Facts & Figures2026

https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/TaxFoundation_FactsFigures26-5-28.pdf

2026 publication with mixed observation years

October 15 proposal's definition checks retained; handbook numbers not used for the new FY2024 comparisons.

NJ-LAW · NJ P.L.2024,c.2 enacted HTML

https://pub.njleg.state.nj.us/Bills/2024/AL24/2_.HTM

Approved March 20, 2024; effective immediately

§§5–6 framework; §38 appropriations; §39 effective date. HTML successfully read after PDF fetch failure.

NY-DATE · NYC City Planning Commission C240369ZMM

https://www.nyc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/about/cpc/240369.pdf

2025 report; historical December 5, 2024 effective date

p.2 background corroborates exact effective date of City of Yes. Used only for that date, not SPARC project findings.